Taos, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

765
FXUS65 KABQ 261932
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
132 PM MDT Sat Jul 26 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1236 PM MDT Sat Jul 26 2025

- Moderate heat risk will impact the lower elevations of central
  and eastern New Mexico today, then the lower elevations of the
  Rio Grande Valley westward Sunday. Cooler temperatures are
  forecast next week.

- After a downtick in storm coverage this weekend, monsoon
  moisture will begin to spread northward over New Mexico again
  late Sunday into Monday. Then, a monsoon burst will surge into
  the region Tuesday through Thursday with locally heavy rainfall
  and potential flash flooding possible, especially around burn
  scars, urban areas, and poorly drained areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 1236 PM MDT Sat Jul 26 2025

Storms lingering over eastern NM this evening will taper off after
sunset. Convective outflows may produce erratic wind gusts this
evening in Chaves, Roosevelt, and Curry counties given the higher
DCAPE values present with the drier air today. Min temps tonight
will be similar to the past couple nights with light winds and
clearing skies.

The easterly wave crossing deep south TX today will be located near
Coahuila by Sunday morning while a 595dm H5 high center takes shape
over north-central NM. Deepening return flow into eastern NM will
allow surface dewpoints to climb back into the upper 50s and low 60s
with PWATs rising >1.25" across southeast NM. Moist, southeasterly
upslope flow into the Sacramento Mts, mid-level deformation between
the approaching easterly wave and upper level high, strong daytime
heating, and orographics will allow storms to develop around Ruidoso
Sunday afternoon. Storm motions are likely to be toward the north/
northwest off the high terrain. Confidence is too low for a Flood
Watch at this time given the storm motion and dependence on storm
redevelopment to the south and east of Ruidoso to provide repeat
storms. Localized max ensemble QPF from the HREF average 0.25" to
0.50" while probability matched mean values are closer to 0.25"
over the high terrain. The NBM only shows 90th percentile values
near 0.10". A few storms are also possible farther north and east
along the Caprock toward Clovis and Tucumcari and perhaps to the
lee of the Sangre de Cristos thru Sunday evening. Max temps will
be very warm for central and western NM beneath the strong upper
high with moderate heat risk likely. Moisture will then continue
deepening to the north and west Sunday night as the easterly wave
moves west into southern Chihuahua.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 1236 PM MDT Sat Jul 26 2025

All of next week looks active for northern, central, and western NM
as the monsoon plume becomes established from south to north across
the region. This is also the climatologically most active period for
the monsoon with the highest daily average dewpoints and Flash Flood
Warning products. The aforementioned easterly wave will be absorbed
into the broader south-north flow regime between a ridge to the east
and a trough along the west coast. Model PWATs rise to near 1.15" at
KABQ Tuesday thru Thursday. Storm coverage will increase farther to
the north between the Cont Divide and the central mt chain beginning
Monday. Some of this activity will be locally heavy with NBM 90th
percentiles showing footprints >1.2" between the Gila region and
Grants and from the Sandia/Manzanos southward to the Sacramento Mts.
A Flood Watch will be more likely Monday for parts of the area,
especially burn scars. NBM 90th percentile footprints then increase
above 1.5" Tuesday thru Thursday while spreading farther north into
the northern mts and northeast NM. Day-to-day variability in storm
coverage and intensity will depend on low predictability features
like remnant mesoscale convective vortices, outflow boundaries,
morning cloud cover, and the eventual placement of the sheared-out
inverted trough over the region. The latest WPC 7-day QPF shows a
broad area with 0.25 to 0.75" over northern, central, and western
NM with locally higher values >2" possible.

Eventually, extended guidance shows a 595dm H5 high drifting west
from TX toward southern NM late in the week. This may focus the
moist instability axis more into northern and western NM by Friday
and Saturday. This may also open the door for northwest flow aloft
and convectively-aided backdoor cold fronts to impact northeast
NM. Temps may also trend hotter for central and southeast NM.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 PM MDT Sat Jul 26 2025

Dry air has spread east over more of NM today with much less storm
coverage than recent days. Convection will focus from the Sacramento
Mts eastward across southeast NM thru 8pm. This activity will drift
erratically east/northeast and be capable of producing brief rain
and strong downburst wind gusts. KROW may see outflow from storms
however confidence is not high enough to mention in the TAF for
now. Skies will clear gradually after sunset with light winds all
areas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1236 PM MDT Sat Jul 26 2025

Sunday will be another very dry day for the northwest half of NM
with slight southwest breezes, above normal temps, and min humidity
near 10%. The southeast half of NM will see an increase in storm
coverage with potential for small footprints of rainfall >0.25"
along with gusty and erratic outflow winds. A substantial moisture
surge will move north into the entire state Monday with greater
storm coverage along and west of the central mt chain. Rainfall
footprints will still be rather small but with amounts >0.50"
possible, especially near the high terrain. Tuesday thru Thursday
may be the peak coverage days with locally heavy rainfall just about
anywhere within northern, central, and western NM. Storm motion will
be slow and erratic toward the north/northeast. Friday and Saturday
also have potential to be active days for parts of region with very
slow storm motions. Total precip amounts of 0.25-0.75" are expected
with locally higher amounts >2" by the end of next week in areas
that haven`t seen much rainfall this summer. The threat for burn
scar flash flooding will remain moderate to high all week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  59  94  61  95 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  46  91  47  92 /   0   0   0  20
Cuba............................  56  89  59  89 /   0   0   0  30
Gallup..........................  50  91  53  92 /   0   0   0  10
El Morro........................  53  88  56  87 /   0   0  10  30
Grants..........................  53  92  57  90 /   0   0   5  20
Quemado.........................  56  89  60  88 /   0   5  20  40
Magdalena.......................  62  89  63  86 /   0  10  10  50
Datil...........................  56  87  58  84 /   0  10  10  40
Reserve.........................  54  94  57  92 /   0  10  10  60
Glenwood........................  59  99  62  95 /   0  10  10  70
Chama...........................  48  85  50  85 /   0   5   0  30
Los Alamos......................  61  87  62  84 /   0   5   0  50
Pecos...........................  58  87  58  85 /   0   5   5  50
Cerro/Questa....................  55  86  56  85 /   0   5   0  40
Red River.......................  47  76  47  75 /   0  10   0  40
Angel Fire......................  39  79  42  78 /   0  10   0  40
Taos............................  51  89  55  87 /   0   5   0  30
Mora............................  52  84  53  82 /   0  10   0  40
Espanola........................  59  95  61  92 /   0   5   0  30
Santa Fe........................  62  89  62  86 /   0   5   5  40
Santa Fe Airport................  60  92  61  90 /   0   5   0  30
Albuquerque Foothills...........  69  95  70  92 /   0   0   5  40
Albuquerque Heights.............  67  96  68  93 /   0   0   5  20
Albuquerque Valley..............  66  98  67  96 /   0   0   5  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  67  96  68  95 /   0   0   5  20
Belen...........................  62  97  65  96 /   0   0   0  20
Bernalillo......................  64  97  66  95 /   0   0   5  30
Bosque Farms....................  62  97  65  95 /   0   0   0  20
Corrales........................  66  97  67  96 /   0   0   5  30
Los Lunas.......................  63  97  65  95 /   0   0   0  10
Placitas........................  65  93  65  91 /   0   0   0  30
Rio Rancho......................  66  97  67  95 /   0   0   5  20
Socorro.........................  67  98  68  95 /   0   5   5  20
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  61  89  60  86 /   0   0   5  40
Tijeras.........................  63  93  63  90 /   0   0   5  40
Edgewood........................  56  92  58  89 /   0   5   0  30
Moriarty/Estancia...............  53  92  55  89 /   0   5   0  30
Clines Corners..................  58  86  58  82 /   0   5   5  30
Mountainair.....................  59  89  58  86 /   0   5   5  40
Gran Quivira....................  59  88  58  85 /   0   5  10  40
Carrizozo.......................  64  90  63  87 /   0  20  10  40
Ruidoso.........................  59  83  56  79 /   0  30  10  50
Capulin.........................  55  87  57  84 /   5   5   0  10
Raton...........................  53  90  55  88 /   5   5   0  20
Springer........................  52  92  55  90 /   5   5   0  20
Las Vegas.......................  55  87  55  84 /   0   5   0  30
Clayton.........................  64  94  65  90 /   5   0   5   0
Roy.............................  59  90  60  86 /   5   0   0   5
Conchas.........................  64  97  66  93 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  62  93  63  88 /   0   5   5   5
Tucumcari.......................  65  93  65  89 /   5  10   0   0
Clovis..........................  68  95  67  92 /  10  20   0   0
Portales........................  68  95  67  93 /  10  20   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  67  95  67  91 /   5  10   0   0
Roswell.........................  71  97  71  93 /   5  20   5   5
Picacho.........................  62  92  62  87 /   5  20  10  20
Elk.............................  60  89  58  85 /   0  30  10  40

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...42